July 31, 2023

Today's Topics

Hello! The current heatwave is proving difficult to cope with for millions of Americans, not to mention this black bear in Burbank who sought solace in someone’s backyard pool over the weekend. Today we’re exploring:

  • Out of office: Do Americans take enough vacation?
  • Cryptoverse: Bitcoin remains the most mainstream asset.
  • Fixed vs. floating: The Fed's hikes haven't hit everyone... yet.
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Out of office

If you’ve found yourself itching to get ‘OOO’ this summer, you’re not the only one: new data from the Labor Department shows that US workers have taken more vacation days in the first 6 months of 2023 than in any first half of the year for the 10 years preceding the pandemic.

The average number of US workers taking vacation from January through June went from 2.3 million in 2022 to 2.6 million in 2023, up some 11%.

The news is interesting in the context of America’s broader relationship with work. A Pew Research Center report published earlier this year revealed that, despite 62% of workers saying that a job offering paid time off for vacations was ‘extremely important’ to them, just 48% of US workers took all of the PTO that was offered.

Feeling the burn(out)

Following pandemic- and recession-related unease about taking days off, US employees seem to be finally embracing vacations, checking out more frequently and for longer stretches of time. This shift can’t come soon enough: a 2021 Mental Health America survey found that nearly 83% of respondents felt emotionally drained by their work.

The US is the only advanced economy in the world that doesn’t guarantee workers paid vacation days — in fact, nearly a third of US employees have no access to paid time off at all. With increased emphasis on mental health, some companies, such as PwC and Priceline, are going as far as to enforce time off to boost staff morale. That seems to be more effective than the "unlimited PTO" policy — a perk that many feel comes with strings attached.

Coinbase, the US-based crypto exchange, was requested by the SEC to halt trading in all cryptocurrencies except for bitcoin, according to an interview with the company’s CEO, Brian Armstrong.

Coinbase didn’t do that, with Armstrong stating that complying with the SEC's request “would have essentially meant the end of the crypto industry in the US” — another tight standoff between regulators and crypto companies in the industry’s short existence.

Bitcoin supreme

Relative to the crypto-mania of 2021, the space has had a relatively muted 12 months. NFTs have, thankfully, mostly disappeared, and the collapse of exchanges like FTX have sobered an industry that was once moving at breakneck speed. But, despite there now being over 22,000 cryptocurrencies available, with a total combined market capitalization of around $1.1 trillion, the original — bitcoin — is still by far the most prominent, with a market cap roughly equivalent to the next 99 largest cryptocurrencies combined.

Howey’s decision

The SEC's request to Coinbase would have meant delisting over 200 tokens that the exchange offers, leaving only bitcoin untouched. They arrived at that conclusion thanks to the regulator's preference for the Howey Test, which considers four criteria to determine if a transaction qualifies as a security.

According to Gary Gensler, the SEC's chair, "most crypto tokens are investment contracts under the Howey Test," placing them firmly under the SEC's regulatory umbrella. However, bitcoin stands apart in Gensler's eyes: he views it as a commodity due to its decentralized nature, thus exempting it from the Howey Test and placing it under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

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Invisible hikes

Last week, the Fed resumed its interest rate hiking campaign, with its 11th raise since March 2022, bringing rates to a 22-year high.

As you may have learned in ECON theory 101, raising interest rates should see consumers cut back on spending, as higher debt repayments and charges cut into finances — however, the reality is a lot less straightforward. Many consumers secured ultra-low rates on their debts during the periods of rock-bottom interest rates, and only 11% of US household debt actually adjusts along with market interest rates, according to data from Moody’s Analytics (via WSJ).

Fixed or floating?

Fixed-rate debt has gained popularity after the role adjustable-rate mortgages played in the 2008 financial crisis. The prevalence of fixed-rate mortgages has potentially contributed to the ongoing housing shortage — in the first half of this year, a mere 1.4% of US homeowners sold their homes, the lowest figure in at least a decade. Current homeowners are understandably hesitant to wade back into the mortgage market if they’ve already locked in a good fixed rate, which is leaving buyers with few options.

Over time, the full effect of rising interest rates will filter through the entire economy. The guessing game that the Fed has to play is: how long is it going to take?

More Data

• UK prime minister Rishi Sunak plans to pour millions into carbon capture projects and confirmed 100+ new oil and gas drilling licenses in the North Sea.

• Older homes are now hot property in the US housing market, with the median price for existing homes now reportedly $600 more than new builds.

• This Barbie is still box office champion: Greta Gerwig’s movie took $93 million in its second week at the domestic box office, in one of the biggest second weekends ever.

New York City's crackdown on rats is working, with complaints about the rodents down 20%.

Hi-Viz

• Jaws-dropping: charting and contextualizing US shark attacks.

• Listen to Wikipedia get updated in real-time.

Off the charts: With the writers' and actors' strikes still ongoing in Hollywood, which major awards show has been postponed for the first time in over 2 decades? [Answer below].

Answer here.

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